We’ve had talk of El Nino. We’ve had three record warm months (August-October) in a row in Portland and then suddenly an early Arctic air outbreak that left a blanket of promising powder from Mt. Hood to Mt. Bachelor and up to Anthony Lakes.

So what does it all mean for the upcoming ski season in Oregon? Not much! Which I take as good news.

Let’s tackle El Nino first. There’s been talk a this anomalous tropical Pacific Ocean temperature and atmospheric pattern developing for this winter since last spring. It’s gone from a high confidence of a moderate to strong El Nino to medium to low confidence of a weak event happening, if at all. Moderate to strong El Nino’s are usually not good for Pacific Northwest snowpack. Weak El Nino’s on the other hand, can go either way. In fact there have been some excellent snow years, even for low elevations, with weak El Nino’s. So the El Nino news, as of now, doesn’t give us a strong indication of our upcoming snowpack either way.

Record warmth in the valley for late summer and early fall? No strong correlation to upcoming winter weather. And the same is true for our early Arctic Blast. Not a harbinger.

So what WILL the season be like? All indications I see point to at least average snowpack in the Northwest. And average is a lot! Colder or warmer than normal? That could go either way.

What I can say with a lot more certainty is that we won’t lose our recently gotten base. And looking at the long range guidance, I see several storms coming to Oregon beginning next week and continuing through the end of the month that should bring good snowfall, at times down to 3,000 feet. There will likely be rises in the snow level between the storms, but this is pretty normal for November. A Thanksgiving opening definitely looks like a good possibility for some Oregon ski areas.

So dance your powder dance, do your ski workouts and start planning those ski weekends. I see no reason to NOT be optimistic about Oregon’s upcoming ski season.

Matt Zaffino
KGW Chief Meteorologist