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Welcome to winter 2010-2011! With the recent weather pattern change, snow is in the air in the mountains… and the skiing/boarding season is not far off. My “Powder Alert” e-mails are soon to resume!
You’ve probably heard that this is expected to be a “La Niña” winter. La Niña (the opposite of El Niño) is a semi-regular phenomenon characterized by colder-than-usual water and stronger-than-usual winds in/over the Pacific Ocean near the equator. These ocean temperature and wind pattern changes affect weather patterns throughout the United States and the world. And this season’s developing La Niña looks to be a strong one, as the transition from last winter’s El Niño to the current La Niña has been incredibly swift. (The suddenness and intensity is nearly unprecedented.)
In the Pacific Northwest, La Niña historically delivers the snow goods! The Pacific storm track is often directly aimed at Oregon during La Niña winters, meaning that the mountains get blasted with frequent and significant snow storms. Above-average snowfall and a lower-than-average freezing level are typical results. In fact, of the nine strong La Nina winters on record since 1952, not a single one featured below-average snowfall!
To predict how snowy this winter might be, we must look to the past to find seasons where the atmospheric/oceanic conditions & trends were similar to what we’re seeing right now. Here are four of these similar-looking La Niña years and the resulting snow situation at Government Camp in the Oregon Cascades:
1970-1971 Huge snow-winter… 57% more than average. Strong start in November, and it just kept going…
1973-1974 Biggest snow-winter on record… 79% more than average. Huge November, and it just kept going…
1988-1989 Big snow-winter… 22% more than average. Big in November and January, average otherwise
2007-2008 Huge snow winter… 55% more than average. Normal November, then huge in December/January
(Thanks to George Taylor, former Oregon state climatologist and current CEO of Applied Climate Services LLC, for researching and identifying the similar-looking La Niña years.)
Several of the winters identified above are among the snowiest winters on record. So… it’s a good bet that mother nature will deliver LOTS OF POWDER THIS WINTER to the mountains of Oregon! But does this mean the skiing/boarding season will begin early and soon? That’s hard to say, but the recent weather pattern change is a really good sign.
As we wait for the lifts to start turning, I encourage you to check out the newly-upgraded www.skioregon.org website for the latest news about Oregon’s ski areas and their opening dates. In the meantime, wax your boards, get your gear organized, and keep checking your e-mail. My first “Powder Alert” could hit your inbox anytime now!
Keep thinking snow,
Drew Jackson
Ski Oregon Meteorologist
www.skioregon.org
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